Ava trusted numbers because numbers behaved.

They did not always give people the answer they wanted, but once written down they usually stayed where they were put.

The Water Titan did not.

That became Ava's problem.

For months she had collected observations.

Dates.

Weather.

Tide height.

Locations.

Jasper's descriptions of pressure and images.

She had expected a pattern eventually.

Instead, the notebook became messier the more accurate she made it.

The presence appeared on calm days and stormy ones.

Near docks and high galleries.

Sometimes before Jasper noticed anything unusual in the water.

Sometimes afterward.

It had moved for Harper after ignoring smaller slips.

It had shown Jasper impressions that might have been memories, but never when asked.

One wet Thursday, Ava shut the notebook harder than necessary.

Harper looked up from the floor.

"What did paper do?"

"Nothing."

"Then why are you attacking it?"

"There is no pattern."

Jasper sat on his bed trying to untangle a practice knot.

"Maybe that is the pattern."

Ava stared at him.

He immediately regretted speaking.

"Explain."

Jasper tried.

"If it can choose things, then it doesn't have to happen on a timetable."

Ava looked offended by the concept.

Harper laughed.

"Ava has discovered people are bad data."

"People have patterns."

"They can also change their minds."

Ava looked down at the notebook.

That was exactly the problem.

Choice made prediction unreliable.

"Then how do we know anything?"

Jasper shrugged. "We know what already happened."

"That is not enough."

"Why?"

Ava opened her mouth.

Then closed it.

Jasper had never seen Ava lose a question before.

That afternoon, Foundations made the problem worse in a useful way.

Pairs had to move three objects across a table without touching them. One object had a training enchantment that changed its weight at unpredictable moments.

Ava hated it immediately.

Her first plan failed when a wooden cube became heavier halfway through the lift.

She reset.

The second plan failed when it became lighter instead.

On the third attempt, Ava stopped deciding the exact route before she began.

She left space to adjust.

The cube changed weight.

Ava lowered it.

Changed the amount of Essence she was using.

Lifted again.

Finished.

Professor Elowen nodded.

"Better."

Ava looked at the objects. "I did not predict it."

"You adapted."

"That feels worse."

"It is often more useful."

Back in Room Fourteen, Ava opened the Map of Things That Should Not Happen.

She created a new page.

KNOWN FACTS.

Not theories.

Not predictions.

Only things they had enough evidence to say.

Jasper experiences a repeatable sensation associated with unusual sea events.

Multiple people have witnessed physically unusual water movement.

Harper's fall involved a swell that did not match ordinary conditions.

Jasper did not cause that swell.

Some impressions Jasper receives contain information or viewpoints he did not consciously possess.

Historical Tidefall records describe similar experiences.

Then Ava made a second heading.

UNKNOWN.

What the Water Titan is.

Why Jasper senses it.

Whether it wants anything.

Whether it understands him.

Why it acted for Harper.

Whether Jasper understands it at all.

Harper looked over her shoulder.

"That's a lot of unknown."

"Yes."

"You okay?"

Ava thought.

"Annoyed."

"Your normal okay."

Ava almost smiled.

Jasper pointed at the list. "Can I add one?"

"What?"

"Whether it likes handball."

Ava stared at him.

Harper burst out laughing.

Ava wrote it.

Jasper looked shocked. "You actually put that down."

"Unknown is unknown."

The notebook felt less frightening after that.

It no longer had to solve the mystery.

It only had to be honest about what they knew.